Covid-19 vaccines and investment performance: Evidence from equity funds in European Union.

In this paper, we analyze the impact of the marketing authorization of EMA-approved vaccines on the returns of equity funds in the EU. Using the event study methodology, we report that the introduction of all vaccines had a positive impact on the funds' returns. Higher abnormal returns were associated with the earlier vaccines, indicating the first-mover advantage and the abnormal returns were persistent across several event windows. The findings imply that equity markets welcomed the vaccine administration as an important pharmaceutical intervention to support the quasi-revival of business activities. Consequently, there was a significant uplift in the economic bottom line.

The complex relationship between inflation and equity returns

Purpose>To investigate the complex relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.Design/methodology/approach>This paper uses a bivariate VARMA, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model to investigate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.Findings>Using monthly inflation and equity returns data for the G7 and EM7 economies, we find that the effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on equity returns vary across countries.Research limitations/implications>The mixed evidence we find potentially reflects the changing dynamics, policy regimes, economic shocks and country-specific factors (such as differences in the financing patterns of enterprises and the legal and financial environments) across the G7 and EM7 countries.Practical implications>We contribute to the empirical literature in the following ways. First, we rely on a wide sample of countries, including both developed and emerging economies. Second, we extend previous research by estimating a GARCH-in-mean model of monthly equity returns in which both realized returns and their conditional volatility are allowed to vary with inflation. Previous articles that studied the relationship between inflation and stock market returns generally sought time-invariant effects of inflation on stock returns.Social implications>The paper helps to reconcile the divergent results of previous empirical studies and distinguish between alternative explanations of the relationship between inflation and equity returns.Originality/value>Our study provides an improved comprehension of the ambiguous relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns under various central bank mandates and different levels of central bank independence. The mixed empirical evidence across countries we present provides insights for the macroeconomic models that consider the relationship between uncertainty and macroeconomic performance as a fundamental building block. Therefore, our empirical study calls for further work on the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty and equity returns.

Bull and bear markets during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe disruption worldwide. We analyze the aggregate U.S. stock market during this period, including implications for both short and long-horizon investors. We identify bull and bear market regimes including their bull correction and bear rally components, demonstrate our model's performance in capturing periods of significant regime change, and provide weekly forecasts that improve risk management and investment decisions. An investment strategy that uses out-of-sample forecasts for market states outperforms a buy and hold strategy during the pandemic by a wide margin, both in terms of annualized returns and Sharpe ratios.